When markets are high and richly valued, we naturally turn our attention towards special situations. Special situations rely on a corporate action to unlock value. It’s not that Dan and I sit down and formally decide the market is high enough to warrant a change in focus. The change happens organically. High valuations reduce forward returns and make special situations relatively more attractive.
The fear of an ATMU selloff still looms. But right now this is going the opposite direction and creating an even bigger windfall for odd lot investors.
My best guess is that 62 million shares of CMI that didn't get pro-rated are in some weak hands who were just playing the tender offer. Hence the selloff. And that would also possibly explain the run-up of shares in CMI before the event.
Meanwhile, ATMU has 70% short interest and a sky-high borrow cost. And we have a couple of days before the new shares will be available. There's a short horizon here where a squeeze is possible.
The fear of an ATMU selloff still looms. But right now this is going the opposite direction and creating an even bigger windfall for odd lot investors.
My best guess is that 62 million shares of CMI that didn't get pro-rated are in some weak hands who were just playing the tender offer. Hence the selloff. And that would also possibly explain the run-up of shares in CMI before the event.
Meanwhile, ATMU has 70% short interest and a sky-high borrow cost. And we have a couple of days before the new shares will be available. There's a short horizon here where a squeeze is possible.
15% return is about as big of a win as you can hope for. Closed out today.